In-depth study of heat shrinkable materials industry: car and high-speed rail pull demand breakthrough

The construction of high-speed rail has entered a comprehensive high-speed growth cycle, driving the expansion of the market for heat-shrinkable materials for high-speed rail. The high-speed iron heat-shrinkable material is mainly applied to the high-speed rail grid plate, which can function as insulation protection when the rail transmits electrical signals, and the circuit protection of the electrified locomotive is also useful. According to the national “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the construction of high-speed railway will reach 16,000 and 30,000 km respectively in 2015 and 2020. According to our estimation of heat-shrinkable materials, the market demand for high-speed heat-shrinkable materials is in 2015. In 2020 and 2020, it will reach 930 million and 1.75 billion, respectively. The gross profit margin of high-speed heat shrinkable materials is above 50%. In 2010, the comprehensive gross profit margin of heat-shrinkable materials is 28%. High-speed heat-shrinkable materials will become one of the highest profit margins in the heat shrinkable materials industry.

The market for heat shrinkable materials for automotive wiring harnesses is expected to increase further in China. At present, China's domestic market for heat-shrinkable materials for automobile manufacturing is still very low, only about 20%. 80% of the global market share is occupied by US-based Realtek and Sumitomo, with the comprehensive domestic certification in the automotive industry. Through the advantages of cost and cost, the market share of heat shrinkable sleeves for automobiles is expected to further increase. At present, the price of double-wall heat-shrinkable sleeves for automobiles produced in China is only 20%-50% of the US Ruiqi and Sumitomo.

According to the current domestic supply analysis of the automotive industry, if all of them are replaced with heat-shrinkable casings for Chinese-made automobiles, the average value of each vehicle is about 100-200 yuan, and the price of foreign heat-shrinkable casings is used. It is 200-500 yuan. Assuming that the market share of heat-shrinkable sleeves for automobiles in China is increased to 40%, and the annual output of 70 million units in the world is calculated, the market space for heat-shrinkable sleeves for automobiles in China will reach 4.2 billion. Moreover, the current gross profit margin of automotive heat shrinkable sleeves is between 40-50%, which is higher than the industry average.

Electronic heat shrinkable materials have grown steadily. After the rapid growth of electronic products, we believe that the local market has begun to saturate in terms of market capacity, and the future electronic products will be the era of differentiation. In terms of the market space growth of electronic heat-shrinkable materials, it is basically the growth rate of the whole electronics industry. We expect that global electronic consumption will be stable and stable in the next 5-10 years, and the differentiated pattern will remain. The total growth will remain at around 10%, which will keep the growth rate of electronic heat-shrinkable materials at around 10%.

Power-based heat-shrinkable materials will grow in proportion to the growth rate of grid investment. The power-type heat-shrinkable materials are mainly cable accessories, which account for about 1.3% of the grid investment. The market capacity is determined by the total investment of the grid in that year and has certain volatility. At present, power-type heat-shrinkable materials are mainly used for medium and low-voltage cable fittings of 35KV and below, while high-voltage cable fittings are mainly prefabricated and cold-shrinkable materials. We estimate that the proportion of medium and low voltage cable fittings in cable fittings is about 40%. According to estimates, the national grid investment will reach 2.5 trillion in 2015, including 32.5 billion cable accessories and 13 billion medium and low voltage cable accessories.

Other types of heat shrinkage are widely distributed, and the pipeline anti-corrosion heat shrinkage belt will benefit more obviously. The oil pipelines and heating pipelines are several hundred kilometers long, and each steel pipe is only 12 meters long. The heat shrinkable belt becomes the material of choice for corrosion protection of pipeline joints. China's nuclear island heat shrinkable materials are now all supplied by Raychem, and there is a large space for localization of heat shrinkable materials. The amount of heat shrinkable material used for a nuclear island is 10 million yuan, and the amount of a conventional island is 2 million yuan.

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